Libya Part 2

The Libyan situation is now entering its third week. What many thought was going to be a swift revolution like the one in Tunisia and Egypt were mistaken. Once again, Gaddafi has proven that he is a survivor.

Whilst writing this blog, Libyan forces loyal to Gaddafi are just outside of Benghazi, the rebels stronghold. If Gaddafi manages to win Benghazi back, he will once again have the whole country under his control. The rebels on their part have been asking for help by the international community especially in creating a no fly zone over Libya. Up till now such solution seems to be far away. Why?

A no-fly zone over Libya is not a simple thing to implement. Such an action would imply that there is a coordinated effort in order to close all Libyan airspace and make sure that the Libyan airforce is not used in any aerial attacks. This could be done by destroying basic aviation infrastructure and monitoring of the said airspace. More importantly the question arises about who would be responsible for implementing such a no-fly zone.

The UN? Highly unlikely. As I said in my previous blog, countries like China are very sceptical about involvement in the internal affairs of another country. To date, Russia and China., both veto holders in the security council seem to be contrary to the idea.

The EU and G8? France and the UK seem to be in favour of such actions. However the Germans have come across against such a proposal. They argue that more sanctions and political force should be used against the Libyan regime. Also, they argue that such actions have to be thought through. What happens if such actions fail? And why are we helping Libya and not other countries?

The German argument seems in my opinion the most logical argument. Although in theory a no fly zone would help, in practice such a move would probably only have a minimal effect. The bulk of Gaddafi's forces are on the ground and a no fly zone would have no effect on them. Also the question is what happens if the no flyzone dails? Are countries actually prepared to send troops to Libya to help topple Gaddafi? I believe that the answer is no. The other option provided by William Hague was that of arming the rebels in order for them to be able to defend themselves. This would lead to a protracted civil war which we have no real guarantee on who is going to win.

What is the solution then? At this point in time I believe there is no real solution to the problem. Toppling Gaddafi was always going to be a difficult task. Isolating him internationally is not going to help since he has already survived decades of international boycotting with little effect. Arming the rebels would only result in a bloody civil war and foreign intervention would probably turn the country into another Iraq. The way I see things turning out is that Gaddafi will win back Benghazi and we will have a guerilla style warfare from the rebels. Trouble however would start again in earnest when Gaddafi passes away.

I hope I'm wrong and the situation is resolved as soon as possible but right now a quick resolution of the problem looks quite bleak